Minera Alamos is a gold development stage company with two ready-to-build assets in northwest Mexico. We expect the first to start production mid-2020, followed by the second in mid-2021. Based on this aggressive timeline, we believe the company should produce 86k oz at AuEq at US$627/oz Au by 2022, generating C$77.9M in EBITDA. With a team that has done it before in Mexico, we believe this timeline is achievable. We expect the stock to re-rate as the market gains comfort regarding the production and cost guidance provided. We are initiating with a fair value estimate of $0.40 per share (derived from 0.8x our base case 8% NAVPS of C$0.51).
Impact: Positive Appia has released additional drill results from its Alces Lake property which continue to showcase its high-grade potential. Additionally, the intersection of xenotime in IV-19-014 suggests the company may have closed in on a new style of host mineralization; which it is planning to do a follow up survey to search for potential xenotime hosts environment. The stock continues to consolidate in lockstep with the rest of the uranium space post the 232 decision earlier this year; however, we believe the market is not properly valuing the REE potential at Alces Lake.
Impact: Neutral Fiore has announced FQ3 financial results following record quarterly production. Despite modestly higher costs QoQ, the company continues to add cash to its balance sheet. We continue to expect Fiore is well positioned to deliver +100koz/year by 2022 driven by the start of production at Gold Rock (we are expecting a PEA by year-end).
Impact: Positive Mako has released constructive drill and trench results from pre-development work at San Albino which appears to have expanded the deposit east. We expect this potential deposit expansion to add to the initial mine-life and the high-grades at surface could accelerate payback and project IRR. Systematic exploration continues to highlight near mine expansion potential and enhances Mako’s value proposition for significant near-term cash flow generation.
Impact: Mildly Positive Production has kicked off at the Baloo Stage I open pit, which we expect is likely to deliver 20-30koz/year to supplement production from Beta Hunt. With mining activities progressing well at both Higginsville and Beta Hunt, we believe that RNC is well positioned to grow to a +100koz/year steady state producer. Two quarters of operating performance and strengthening balance sheet to rerate the stock. Pending guidance, the next key catalyst for RNC.
Impact: Mildly Positive Novo has announced results from four bulk samples on its Egina project with ore grade results from three of four samples. With a recently announced US$30M farm-in with Sumitomo Corp, Novo is well positioned with the technical knowledge and financial support to develop Egina. We expect the market could price in the potential at Egina with successful bulk sampling.
Impact: Mildly Positive Standard Lithium has completed it’s LiSTR direct lithium extraction demonstration plant which it will now ship for installation on site at Lanxess’ (ETR:LXS) South Plant Facility in Southern Arkansas. With an excellent PEA, which highlights a high-margin and economically robust project in Arkansas we believe Standard Lithium’s unconventional approach continues to create significant value for investors, which is not reflected in the company’s share price.
Impact: Positive Aurion has announced a new discovery at its East Launi project in Northern Finland where it has identified several extensive high-grade structures. We believe early exploration at Aurion’s East Launi has potential for another discovery in addition to the prospective areas traced throughout Risti. With a growing portfolio of high-grade gold targets supported by exploration success, we are increasing our fair value estimate to C$2.75/share (was C$2.29/share)
Impact: Mildly Positive Mawson has provided an update summarizing the 15,059m drill program at its Rajapalot Project in Finland where it is positioned to significantly increase its gold-cobalt resource. Mawson’s performance gap creates a buying opportunity as we expect the existing resource to double following this past winter’s drill program and further growth is likely when the company resumes drilling.
Impact: Mildly Positive Chalice has announced EM results from its recently expanded 1,800km2 property nickel property in Western Australia. Equipped with a technical team experienced in nickel sulphide discoveries, we expect the company is well positioned to make a discovery at its King Leopold project. With renewed focus in its Australian assets, we believe Chalice is poised to re-rate on the first hint of drilling success.