We are initiating coverage on Star Diamond Corporation. The company holds a 100% interest the Star–Orion South Diamond Project in central Saskatchewan. A PEA in 2018 estimated 66M carats of diamonds could be recovered in an open pit mine over a 34-year life with an NPV (7%) of $2.0B and IRR of 19% (after-tax). The project has a significant portion of high-value Type IIa diamonds and a coarse diamond size frequency distribution. Unlike any current or previous Canadian diamond mines, Star-Orion South is very close to all required infrastructure. In addition, the project has already received environmental approval from the Federal and Provincial governments. Importantly, the company’s potential JV partner and operator (Rio Tinto) has accelerated the development timelines and capital spending on the project. We believe Star Diamond Corp. stock will re-rate as the market begins to appreciate the augmented pace of news flow and potential for it to become an M&A target.
We are resuming coverage following the recent financing and increasing our 2020 production estimates. Over the last two quarters Gran Colombia has consistently beat our grade expectations at Segovia and we expect this trend to continue. As such, we now model production in 2020 of 237koz at US$695/oz total cash costs (was 213koz at TCC of US$728 /oz). We are resuming coverage with a BUY rating (was restricted) and a target of C$10.00/sh (was restricted). We believe that as Gran Colombia demonstrates the high-grade long-life potential of Segovia the stock should materially re-rate towards peers.
Mawson Resources announced more good drill results from its 2020 exploration program at the company’s Rajapalot project (100% owned) in Northern Finland. This batch of results highlights some of the best intercepts to date and supports our view that Mawson is likely to deliver a 1.5-2M oz resource from Rajapalot following this year’s drill program. Considering our expectations for resource growth, we believe Mawson trades at a discount to peers and despite outperforming so far in 2020 (up 40%), we believe it could still go materially higher.
RNC Minerals announced it has identified a new five-kilometer structure at its Higginsville operations in Western Australia. This renewed exploration focus, follows the recent restructuring of the royalty at Higginsville, which we believe unlocked the 1.9M oz Au plus further exploration potential (as demonstrated by this release). RNC remains attractively valued as its transformation to profitability is not yet priced in providing investors a low-cost option on the “High-Grade Contact Zone” at Beta Hunt and exploration upside at Higginsville.
Troilus Gold announced results from seven drill holes from its 2,500m drill program at the company’s 100%-owned Troilus property located near Chibougamau, Quebec. Drilling aimed at testing prospective areas 3.5km south of the Z87 pit and successfully intersected a new zone. Given previous operators (Inmet Mining Corp.) did little to no near-mine exploration, we expect the stock to materially re-rate over the next 6-12 months as the company demonstrates organic resource expansion potential along strike from the J Zone and Z87 resources areas.
On Friday, Fiore Gold released its FY2019 (ended Sept 30th) operational and financial statements that were roughly in line with our estimates. Production results came well within guidance and generated strong operating cash flow, which the company can deploy to continue to upgrade and improve its Pan Mine and Gold Rock development projects both located in Nevada. We continue to believe Fiore is well positioned to deliver +80k oz of Au annually by 2022 driven by steady production at Pan alongside organic growth from Gold Rock.
FireFox Gold announced the discovery of a new gold target “Katajavaara”, at the company’s Jeesiö Gold Project (100% owned) in the Central Lapland Greenstone Belt, Finland. The target is adjacent to Aurion’s (TSXV:AU, FV est. C$3.25/sh) Launi project and could have the potential to house similar gold-bearing quartz-sulphide veining. FireFox has a large district land package of 80,000 ha, which we believe is not currently reflected by the company’s share price. We believe exploration success by either FireFox or Aurion (FireFox’s neighbour) should drive Firefox’s share price higher.
RNC Minerals announced 2020 production and cost guidance for its Australian gold operations. The guidance, which we view as conservative, points to improving costs and increased production – likely making 2020 RNC’s first profitable year. We expect the company to materially beat its guidance in 2020, as it does not account for coarse gold. We are maintaining our fair value estimate of C$0.90/sh (unchanged) and believe RNC should re-rate as the company continues to demonstrate that it has transformed into a profitable gold producer.
We are launching coverage on Québec Precious Metals (QPM), a strategic player in the emerging district of the Eeyou Istchee James Bay territory in Québec. The company is back stopped by the well-drilled (33,000m) La Pointe deposit which is on the cusp of a maiden resource and is part of a larger 874km2 target-rich portfolio of projects. With a property flush with exploration potential and a strong balance sheet (C$6.5M cash) primed for the occasion, our view is that QPM is positioned for discovery in James Bay and should re-rate in the process.
Lion One Metals released results from the first 400m of drilling from the second diamond drill hole (DDH) at the company’s Tuvatu Alkaline Gold Project (100% owned) in Fiji. The second hole (TUDDH494) focused on targeting the east-west striking Murau 2 lode in addition to the downdip extensions of two mineralized N-S trending structures. With ~600m of assays left in hole two and results from two additional holes still to come, we believe the stock should re-rate towards our fair value estimate of C$1.70/sh with continued drilling success.